Surveys
Transitional Government in Afghanistan
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Summary
In April, 2,500 women and girls aged 18-60 in Herat, Nangarhar, Balkh, Helmand, Takhar, Bamiyan, Kandahar, Daikundi, Panjshir, Jawzjan, Farah, Faryab, Badghis, Baghlan, Kunar, and Paktia were polled on Transitional Government.
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Over half (69.4%) of the respondents felt a ceasefire agreement should be enforced before the establishment of a Transitional Government.
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Three fourths (73.44%) of the respondents said elections should take place to identify the president of a Transitional Government while 14.96% said the international community should select the president.
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Half (54.24%) of the respondents believed power should be centralized within a Transitional Government while 15.24% felt it should be decentralized.
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76.4% of the respondents said that 40-50% of the Transitional Government should be occupied by women if it is to be considered inclusive.
Data Explorer
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Analysis of Provincial Findings
Disputes over guiding principles in Intra-Afghan Talks was a key issue that slowed down the pace of talks in the first phase of negotiations. The Taliban Negotiating team wanted the US-Taliban Agreement to be recognized as a principle document during talks, while the Republic Negotiating Team proposed four alternatives as guiding principles:
- If the US-Taliban Agreement is recognized as a principal agreement, so should the tripartite declaration between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, the United States, and NATO.
- Neither the US-Taliban Agreement nor the Tripartite Declaration should be the basis for negotiations, rather the negotiations should be furthered on the basis of the Consultative Loya Jirga Declaration.
- The national interests of Afghanistan should be the basis for negotiations.
- Reference to Quran and Hadith to resolve disagreements during negotiations.
Eventually, the prolonged discussions culminated in four guiding principles that were agreed upon on 02 December 2020:
- The US-Taliban Agreement signed on February 29, 2020.
- The demand of the Afghan people for a sustainable peace.
- Commitment of the negotiating parties to a sustainable peace.
- Demands of the United Nations for a durable peace in Afghanistan.
Close to half (48.1%) of the 21018 respondents in Herat, Takhar, Balkh, Bamiyan, Nangarhar, Kandahar, and Helmand said they were aware that the negotiating parties had agreed on these four principles while an almost equal number (48.4%) said they were not. But when asked if they were aware that discussions on these principles were the reason that slowed the pace of talks, a majority (63.25%) said yes while 35.6% said no. A majority (69.9%) said they were concerned that the US-Taliban Agreement was made as one of the guiding principles and felt this could jeopardize the gains of the past two decades. Furthermore, when asked if the three principles namely demand of the Afghan people for a sustainable peace, commitment of the negotiating parties to a sustainable peace, and demands of the United Nations for a durable peace in Afghanistan were sufficient enough to safeguard the gains of the last two decades, close to half (48.73%) said they were not while one fifth (20.3%) said they were sufficient.
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