Surveys

Exchange of Prisoners between the Afghan Government and the Taliban

September 2020

1,059 women in 7 provinces were polled on the exchange of prisoners between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

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Summary

Three fourth (75%) of the respondents said they were aware of the agreement between the Afghan government and the Taliban on the exchange of prisoners.
Three fourth (76%) of the respondents agreed with the Afghan government’s release of 5000 Taliban prisoners before the start of talks.
Majority (63%) of the respondents felt that the exchange of prisoners will not lead to a reduction in violence.
An absolute majority (97%) of the respondents said they were concerned about Taliban fighters returning to the battlefield after being released.

Data Explorer

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Analysis of Provincial Findings

Between May and June 2020, the Afghan government and the Taliban began an exchange of prisoners. The Afghan government agreed to release 5000 Taliban prisoners in exchange for 1000 Afghan forces and civilian government personnel held by the Taliban.

After the US-Taliban Agreement (29th February 2020), the exchange of prisoners was considered the second most important step to kick-start direct negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban. By early August 2020, the Afghan government had released 4600 Taliban prisoners but withheld releasing the remaining 400 as they were accused of involvement in deadly and high-profiled attacks.

To settle the dispute over the remaining 400 Taliban prisoners, President Ghani invoked the Constitution and convened a Loya Jirga which could give him the mandate to release the remaining prisoners if attendees reached consensus. Viewing it as the last obstacle in commencing direct negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government, the Jirga in its 9th August Resolution approved release of the remaining 400 Taliban prisoners.

A majority (97%) of the 10,594 respondents surveyed in Herat, Balkh, Nangarhar, Helmand, Takhar, Bamiyan, and Kandahar were concerned that Taliban fighters would return to the battlefield upon their release. Three fourths (75%) of the respondents also mentioned that they were of the agreement to exchange of prisoners.

Furthermore, when asked if they felt the exchange could lead to a reduction in violence, 63% said no while only 34% said yes. These views were further reinforced by 76% of the respondents who said they did not agree with the Afghan government’s decision to release the 5000 Taliban prisoners before the start of Intra-Afghan Talks. This suggested that respondents felt that the exchange of prisoners should only have been discussed once Intra-Afghan Talks had started and not treated as a condition to kick-start talks.