Surveys

Disputes Over Guiding Principles in Intra-Afghan Talks

January 2021

2,101 women in 7 provinces were polled on disputes over guiding principles in Intra-Afghan talks.

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Summary

In January, 2,101 women and girls aged 18-35 in Herat, Balkh, Nangarhar, Helmand, Takhar, Bamiyan, and Kandahar were polled on Disputes over Guiding Principles in Intra-Afghan Talks.

63.25% of respondents said they were aware of the Taliban’s demand for the US-Taliban Agreement to serve as the principal framework for negotiations and felt this was a key impediment to the peace talks.
Slightly less than half (48.1%) of the respondents said they were aware that four guiding principles were agreed upon by the negotiating teams on 2nd December 2020, which included the US-Taliban Agreement.
Over half (69.9%) of the respondents said they were concerned that accepting the US-Taliban Agreement as a guiding document could jeopardize two decades of gains for Afghan women.
Almost half (48.73%) of the respondents felt that the other three principles— demands of the Afghan people for sustainable peace, commitment of the negotiating parties to a sustainable peace, and demands of the UN to ensure a durable peace— were not sufficient enough to safeguard women’s rights.

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Analysis of Provincial Findings

Disputes over guiding principles in the Intra-Afghan Talks were a key issue that slowed down the pace of negotiations in the first phase. The Taliban Negotiating Team advocated for the recognition of the US-Taliban Agreement as the principal document during talks, while the Republic Negotiating Team proposed four alternatives as guiding principles: (1) recognition of the US-Taliban Agreement alongside the tripartite declaration between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, the United States, and NATO, (2) exclusion of both the US-Taliban Agreement and the Tripartite Declaration as the basis for negotiations, with negotiations instead based on the Consultative Loya Jirga Declaration, (3) adoption of Afghanistan’s national interests as the negotiation basis, and (4) reference to the Quran and Hadith to resolve disagreements during negotiations. Eventually, the prolonged discussions culminated in the agreement on these four guiding principles.

Close to half (48.1%) of the 21,018 respondents in Herat, Takhar, Balkh, Bamiyan, Nangarhar, Kandahar, and Helmand said they were aware that the negotiating parties had agreed on these four principles, while an almost equal number (48.4%) said they were not. However, when asked if they were aware that discussions on these principles were the reason that slowed the pace of talks, a majority (63.25%) said yes, while 35.6% said no. Additionally, a majority (69.9%) expressed concern that the inclusion of the US-Taliban Agreement as one of the guiding principles could jeopardize the gains of the past two decades.

Furthermore, when asked if the three principles—demand of the Afghan people for sustainable peace, commitment of the negotiating parties to sustainable peace, and demands of the United Nations for durable peace in Afghanistan—were sufficient to safeguard the gains of the last two decades, close to half (48.73%) said they were not, while one fifth (20.3%) said they were sufficient.