Surveys

Reduction in Violence in Afghanistan

Aug 3, 2020

539 women in 3 provinces were surveyed on the topic of Reduction in Violence.

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Summary

Half (50.09%) of the respondents said they were informed that a reduction in violence had not been committed to by the Taliban before the start of intra-Afghan talks.
Majority (80.33%) of the respondents felt that sustainable peace could not be achieved if the Taliban did not agree on a reduction in violence.
A little over fifty percent (58.07%) of the respondents said they had not experienced a reduction in violence in their communities.
In terms of which aspects of the process surrounding a possible reduction in violence was not clear to them, 29.49% said the agreement reached, 24.48% said implications at the sub-national level, and 19.48% said they did not have clarity on the actors involved in the process.

Data Explorer

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Analysis of Provincial Findings

It was envisioned that soon after the US-Taliban Agreement was signed (28th February 2020), the Taliban would sit down with the Afghan government to start negotiations while keeping violence low. The deal stipulated that the Taliban would not conduct terrorist attacks against the U.S. homeland or assets, nor allow territory it controls to be used for external terrorism against the US and its allies. In return, the US would withdraw all its forces from the country by May 2021, starting with the withdrawal of 5,600 troops by July 2020. Unwritten in this deal was the hope that the Taliban would maintain a significant reduction in violence during the withdrawal period and as it starts negotiations with the government. However, the Taliban claim they made no such ‘oral’ deal and in fact said they had stipulated before the signing of the Agreement that it had no intentions of reducing violence while negotiating.

According to the majority (80.33%) of the 5,391 respondents surveyed in Herat, Balkh, and Nangarhar, sustainable peace cannot be achieved through dialogue if the Taliban do not commit to a reduction in violence.

Half (50.09%) of the respondents said they were aware that the Taliban had not committed to reducing violence before joining the Intra-Afghan Talks. But when asked if they had experienced a reduction in violence in their communities post the US-Taliban Agreement, a significant number (41.92%) said yes, while a little over fifty percent (58.07%) said no.

Additionally, when asked what aspects were not clear to them surrounding a possible process reduction, 29.49% said its implications at the sub-national level, 19.48% said the actors that would be involved in this process, and 15.58% said the timeline that would be proposed.